Forecasting CMEs - transit times and impact speed (DBM)

The drag based model (DBM) is an analytical tool which calculates the transit time and impact speed of coronal mass ejections (CMEs). The analytical drag based model covers the differences in speed as well as density between the CME and the ambient solar wind flow. In addition it takes into account the size of the CME. The method is described in detail in Vršnak and Žic (2007, A&A, 472, p.937), the evaluation of the tool is given in Vršnak et al. (2014, APJSS, 213, id.21), the further development of the tool is published in Žic, Vršnak, and Temmer, 2015 (ApJSS, 218, id.32). 

Options:

  • Real-time (DBM+ESWF) combines the results from the solar wind forecast and gives the current interplanetary conditions in which an 'almost real-time' CME might propagate
    (Note that this option is only meaningful for Earth-directed CMEs!).
  • Custom (DBM) uses the interplanetary conditions and individual targets as given by the user
  • Documentation includes a manual and further references for interested users

Results from calculation:

  • CME arrival time and impact speed as well as travel time are given
  • v(R) and R(t) plots as well as an animation of the CME geometry as propagating in interplanetary space is shown
  • A zip file containing numerical and visual results can be downloaded

Please use the ESA service for calculating CME forecasts using the DBM. 

Example output:

Kinematic evolutionAnimation