Forecasting solar wind high-speed streams (ESWF)

The solar wind speed forecasting algorithm is based on an empirical relation linking the area of coronal holes observed in remote sensing EUV data and high speed streams measured at Earth after about 4 days (see Vršnak, Temmer, Veronig, 2007; Solar Physics 240, 315). Feature recognition algorithms extract the area of coronal holes in EUV 193Å images from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO). 

Details on the algorithm and image extraction method are described in Rotter et al., 2012 (Solar Physics, 281, 793) and Reiss et al. (2016, Space Weather). Improvements on the coronal hole detection algorithm using supervised classification can be found in Reiss et al., 2015 (SWSC, 5, id.A23). Application of the model to study preconditioning periods of IP space are given in Temmer et al., 2017 (ApJ, 835, 141).

Images below show the extraction of the coronal hole areas from EUV data (left) and the solar wind speed forecast together with measured data (right). For a cross-check to more easily identify magnetic cloud passages, we give the solar wind magnetic field parameters (Bz and Btotal).

This service is updated automatically every hour (note there is a time delay since SDO data are not available in real-time).

See the ESA service for short-, medium-, and long-term comparison of the forecast. The forecast service is also provided via email to subscribed users of ISEST/MiniMax24.

Left: Monitoring the Sun in EUV (NASA/SDO 193Å) and extracted coronal hole areas (white contours) which are used for calculating the solar wind speed at 1AU. Right: The top panel presents measured magnetic field data from NOAA/DSCOVR (Bz and Btotal in red and black lines), middle and bottom panels show the solar wind speed as measured by NOAA/DSCOVR (black lines) and forecasted (blue crosses). In a test phase, we plot the automatic warnings for ICMEs and CIRs from the AWARE tool developed by DTU (contact: Susanne Vennerstroem).