ESA Space Safety Services

ESA Space Safety services for H-ESC and I-ESC

Service Provision for the ESA Heliospheric Weather Expert Group (H-ESC) and the Ionospheric Weather Expert Group (I-ESC). For accessing a login is required.

H-ESC: CME propagation tool DBEM (1)
H-ESC: Solar wind forecast based on EUV images ESWF (2)
H-ESC: Solar wind forecast using DA ESWF24
H-ESC: Solar wind forecast based on STEREO in-situ STEREO+CH (3)
I-ESC: Orbit drop nowcast SODA (4)

(1) CME propagation tool DBEM (Drag Based Ensemble Model) - please visit ESA site for use

see more details in Vrsnak et al., 2013; Zic, Vrsnak, Temmer, 2015; Dumbovic et al., 2018; Dumbovic et al., 2021;
Calogovic et al., 2021; Sudar et al., 2022;

(2+3) Solar wind speed forecast for Earth using STEREO+CH and ESWFv3.2 results (live plot updated every hour)

Empirical solar wind forecast (ESWF) - see Vrsnak, Temmer, Veronig, 2007; Rotter et al., 2012; Reiss et al., 2016; Milosic et al., 2023 (ESWFv3.2);
STEREO+CH - persistence model based on STEREO-A in-situ measurements and the information how coronal holes evolve over time - see Temmer, Hinterreiter, Reiss, 2018

The plot below shows a comparison of the different forecasting methods and actual measurements from ACE. A threshold of 500 km/s in the solar wind proton bulk speed marks streams of enhanced speeds, i.e., high speed solar wind streams and related stream interaction regions.

The plots below show EUV data and extracted coronal holes from SDO (left) and STEREO-A (right). The area of a coronal hole is directly related to the solar wind speed measured in-situ. The area within the white slice (+/-7.5° from central meridian) is the basis of the ESWFv3.2 and STEREO+CH forecasting tool.

(4) Satellite orbit decay (SODA) - live plot updated every hour

see more details in Krauss et al., 2015; Krauss, Temmer, Vennerstroem 2018; Krauss et al., 2020; Krauss et al., 2024 (SODA; in press)

The plot covers the past 50 days showing the nowcast of satellite orbit drops for normalized heights of 490 km.