Heliospheric Weather Expert Group, Ionospheric Weather Expert Group

Hourly updates from ESWF and STEREO+CH including CH area extraction, are given below. SODA is under development (plan: Dec 21).

Access the official ESA Space Safety services via: https://swe.ssa.esa.int/heliospheric-weather => Contributions => UNIGRAZ 

 

1) CME propagation tool:

  • Drag Based Ensemble Model (DBEM) - see Vrsnak et al., 2013; Zic, Vrsnak, Temmer, 2015; Dumbovic et al., 2018, 2021; Calogovic et al., 2021

 

2) Solar wind forecast for Earth

  •  Empirical solar wind forecast (ESWF) - see Vrsnak, Temmer, Veronig, 2007; Rotter et al., 2012; Reiss et al., 2016
    • Plots shown below are updated every hour
    • red: STEREO-A CH area (top) and area based forecast, blue: SDO area based forecast - see extraction of CH area to the right, black: ACE data

 

 

  • STEREO+CH - see Temmer, Hinterreiter, Reiss, 2018
    • an innovative persistence solar wind forecast model using STEREO in-situ data (dynamic location, East of Earth)
    • AND =>
    • applying the information of coronal hole area evolution observed in EUV from STEREO location to Earth position.
      • Plot shown below is updated every hour (STEREO+CH and ESWF are given in comparison) - see extraction of CH area in ST-A to the right

 

 

 

 

3) Satellite orbit decay (SODA) - see Krauss et al., 2015; Krauss, Temmer, Vennerstroem 2018; Krauss et al., 2020

The plots covering the past 72 hours and 50 days show the nowcast of satellite orbit drops for normalized heights of 490 km and are updated every hour.

The service "SODA" is currently under development for the ESA-SWESNET project.