Heliospheric Weather Expert Group, Ionospheric Weather Expert Group

Hourly updates from ESWF and STEREO+CH including CH area extraction, are given below. SODA is under development (plan: Dec 21).

Access the official ESA Space Safety services via: https://swe.ssa.esa.int/heliospheric-weather => Contributions => UNIGRAZ 

 

1) CME propagation tool:

  • Drag Based Ensemble Model (DBEM) - see Vrsnak et al., 2013; Zic, Vrsnak, Temmer, 2015; Dumbovic et al., 2018, 2021; Calogovic et al., 2021

 

2) Solar wind forecast for Earth

  •  Empirical solar wind forecast (ESWF) - see Vrsnak, Temmer, Veronig, 2007; Rotter et al., 2012; Reiss et al., 2016
    • Plots shown below are updated every hour
    • red: STEREO-A CH area (top) and area based forecast, blue: SDO area based forecast - see extraction of CH area to the right, black: ACE data

 

 

  • STEREO+CH - see Temmer, Hinterreiter, Reiss, 2018
    • an innovative persistence solar wind forecast model using STEREO in-situ data (dynamic location, East of Earth)
    • AND =>
    • applying the information of coronal hole area evolution observed in EUV from STEREO location to Earth position.
      • Plot shown below is updated every hour (STEREO+CH and ESWF are given in comparison) - see extraction of CH area in ST-A to the right

 

 

 

 

3) Satellite orbit decay (SODA) - see Krauss et al., 2015; Krauss, Temmer, Vennerstroem 2018; Krauss et al., 2020

Currently under development for the ESA-SWESNET project