Heliospheric Weather Expert Group, Ionospheric Weather Expert Group
Hourly updates from ESWF and STEREO+CH including CH area extraction, are given below. SODA is under development (plan: Dec 21).
Access the official ESA Space Safety services via: https://swe.ssa.esa.int/heliospheric-weather => Contributions => UNIGRAZ
1) CME propagation tool:
- Drag Based Ensemble Model (DBEM) - see Vrsnak et al., 2013; Zic, Vrsnak, Temmer, 2015; Dumbovic et al., 2018, 2021; Calogovic et al., 2021
2) Solar wind forecast for Earth
- Empirical solar wind forecast (ESWF) - see Vrsnak, Temmer, Veronig, 2007; Rotter et al., 2012; Reiss et al., 2016
- Plots shown below are updated every hour
- red: STEREO-A CH area (top) and area based forecast, blue: SDO area based forecast - see extraction of CH area to the right, black: ACE data
- STEREO+CH - see Temmer, Hinterreiter, Reiss, 2018
- an innovative persistence solar wind forecast model using STEREO in-situ data (dynamic location, East of Earth)
- AND =>
- applying the information of coronal hole area evolution observed in EUV from STEREO location to Earth position.
- Plot shown below is updated every hour (STEREO+CH and ESWF are given in comparison) - see extraction of CH area in ST-A to the right
3) Satellite orbit decay (SODA) - see Krauss et al., 2015; Krauss, Temmer, Vennerstroem 2018; Krauss et al., 2020
Currently under development for the ESA-SWESNET project