Heliospheric Weather Expert Group, Ionospheric Weather Expert Group
Access the official ESA Space Safety services via
- https://swe.ssa.esa.int/heliospheric-weather => Contributions => UNIGRAZ (DBEM, STEREO+CH, ESWF, ESWF24)
- https://swe.ssa.esa.int/ionospheric-weather for the new SODA service (planned launch end of 2022).
1) CME propagation tool:
- Drag Based Ensemble Model (DBEM) - see Vrsnak et al., 2013; Zic, Vrsnak, Temmer, 2015; Dumbovic et al., 2018, 2021; Calogovic et al., 2021
2) Solar wind speed forecast for Earth using STEREO+CH and ESWFv3.2 results (plots shown below are updated every hour)
- Empirical solar wind forecast (ESWF) - see Vrsnak, Temmer, Veronig, 2007; Rotter et al., 2012; Reiss et al., 2016; Milosic et al., 2022 (ESWFv3.2)
- STEREO+CH - persistence model based on STEREO-A in-situ measurements and the information how coronal holes evolve over time - see Temmer, Hinterreiter, Reiss, 2018
The plot below shows a comparison of the different forecasting methods and actual measurements from ACE. A threshold of 500 km/s in the solar wind proton bulk speed marks streams of enhanced speeds, i.e., high speed solar wind streams and related stream interaction regions.
The plots below show EUV data and extracted coronal holes from SDO (left) and STEREO-A (right). The area of a coronal hole is directly related to the solar wind speed measured in-situ. The area within the white slice (+/-7.5° from central meridian) is the basis of the ESWFv3.2 and STEREO+CH forecasting tool.
3) Satellite orbit decay (SODA) - see Krauss et al., 2015; Krauss, Temmer, Vennerstroem 2018; Krauss et al., 2020
The plot covers the past 50 days showing the nowcast of satellite orbit drops for normalized heights of 490 km. It is updated every hour.
The service "SODA" is currently under development for the ESA-SWESNET project and can soon be reached via https://swe.ssa.esa.int/ionospheric-weather.